New Delhi: An estimated 18.2 million (1.82 crore) people globally may have died because of the Covid-19 pandemic by 31 December 2021, which is about three times the official Covid death records, an analysis published in The Lancet has concluded.
According to the study, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to Covid-19 were estimated in India at 40.7 lakh (37.1–43.6 lakh). Because of its large population, India alone accounted for an estimated 22 per cent of the global total deaths.
The study, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, also looked at the excess mortality figures of 12 Indian states. Among these, the ratio between excess and reported Covid-19 deaths was the highest in Bihar at 26.68 and the lowest in Goa at 0.96.
“Based largely on empirical excess mortality observed in 12 Indian states, including during the surge in Covid-19 cases between April and July, 2021, we found that at the national level, India had an estimated 152.5 excess deaths (95 per cent UI 138.6–163.3) per 1,00,000 of the population over the study period,” the study noted.
This, it added, was much higher than the reported COVID-19 mortality rate of 18.3 per 1,00,000 in the same period.
Other countries that recorded the highest cumulative excess deaths were the US at 11.3 lakh, Russia at 10.7 lakh, Mexico at 7,98,000, Brazil at 7,92,000, Indonesia at 7,36,000, and Pakistan at 6,64,000.
These seven countries may have accounted for more than half of global excess deaths caused by the pandemic over the 24-month period.
Among these countries, the excess deaths rates were highest in Russia (375 deaths per 1,00,000), Mexico (325 deaths per 1,00,000), Brazil (187 deaths per 1,00,000), and the USA (179 deaths per 1,00,000). India had an estimated 152 excess deaths per 1,00,000.
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8 Indian states had excess mortality rates higher than 200
The study said that there was extremely high “heterogeneity in excess mortality” among all Indian states.
“From Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021, eight Indian states had excess mortality rates higher than 200 per 1,00,000, a level only exceeded by 50 other countries in the world,” the study observed.
These states were Uttarakhand, Manipur, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Karnataka.
Conversely, Arunachal Pradesh, Telangana, Sikkim, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Goa had excess mortality rates that were lower than the global average of 120.6 per 1,00,000, the analysis said.
Similar heterogeneity was evident in the excess death counts across states.
As of 31 December last year, seven states in India had excess deaths higher than 2,00,000. These were West Bengal at 2,20,000 (1,32,000–2,54,000), Madhya Pradesh at 2,23,000 (1,88,000–2,53,000), Tamil Nadu at 2,60,000 (1,99,000–3,01,000), Karnataka at 2,84,000 (2,23,000–3,27,000), Bihar at 3,23,000 (2,57,000–3,88,000), Uttar Pradesh at 5,17,000 (4,18 000–6,02,000), and Maharashtra at 6,16,000 (4,84,000–7,36,000).
Although the excess mortality rates due to the pandemic among Indian states are not the highest in the world, because of India’s large population, the country accounted for 22.3 per cent (20.3–23.9 per cent) of global excess deaths, according to the study’s estimates.
First peer-reviewed estimates
The new study provides the first peer-reviewed estimates of excess deaths due to the pandemic globally and for 191 countries and territories (and 252 subnational locations such as states and provinces) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021.
Weekly or monthly data on deaths from all causes in 2021, 2020, and up to 11 prior years was obtained for 74 countries and 266 states and provinces through searches of government websites, the World Mortality Database, the Human Mortality Database, and the European Statistical Office.
This data was used in models to estimate excess mortality due to the Covid-19 pandemic, including for locations with no weekly or monthly reporting of death data.
Regionally, with 53 lakh excess deaths, South Asia had the highest number of estimated deaths from COVID-19, followed by North Africa and the Middle East (17 lakh) and Eastern Europe (14 lakh).
Multiple GOI denials about excess mortality
The Lancet study is not the first time that there have been claims about excess mortality in India. Many other studies have also arrived at their own estimates. The Government of India, however, has denied all such claims.
In the latest denial, dated 17 February 2022, the Press Information Bureau said that India had a “robust system” of reporting deaths, including those due to Covid-19. Deaths in India, the release claimed, were compiled regularly “at different levels of governance”, from the village- to district- to state-level, and were then reported in a “transparent manner”.
The press release listed out various measures that the Government of India has undertaken to record a “correct picture” of pandemic-related deaths across the states and said that “to project that Covid deaths have been under-reported is without basis and devoid of justification”.
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Source: The Print
