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India’s daily growth rate of Covid cases has plateaued at 34.9%, claims Cambridge tracker

New Delhi: India’s daily growth rate of Covid cases has now plateaued, indicating that cases are no longer increasing at a super exponential rate as was seen over the past two weeks, according to a 9 January report by researchers from the University of Cambridge.

The report said the growth rate of cases at the national level has plateaued at 34.9 per cent. This, however, does not mean that the number of daily cases has peaked, that is predicted to happen later this month.

As many as 1,68,063 new Covid cases from across India were reported Tuesday, compared to 1,79,723 Monday.

State-wise numbers

According to the Cambridge tracker, the daily growth rates in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Jharkhand and West Bengal have already peaked, and are in the declining phase. 

In Jharkhand, the daily growth rate peaked at 57 per cent on 4 January, and has since declined to 23 per cent. In Delhi, after peaking at 53 per cent on 5 January, the daily growth rate has declined to 36 per cent.

Based on the trends, the team predicts that daily cases are likely to peak in the second half of January in Jharkhand and around the end of January in Delhi.

The number of states and Union territories with a daily growth rate exceeding 10 per cent stands at 34, with the highest being Tripura at 57.1 per cent. 

Gujarat and Haryana are also showing early signs of declining growth rates, although currently they are at 34.0 per cent and 39.3 per cent respectively. 

According to the Cambridge researchers, the decline in the daily growth rate will now depend on the changes in social behaviour and on Covid mitigation measures.  

What is Cambridge tracker?

The tracker, developed by researchers at Cambridge Judge Business School and the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research, provides near-term forecasts of the trajectory of the pandemic, identifying states and Union territories that are at high risk of increases in infection incidence.

The forecasts are based on a model that uses past data to make predictions, but also adapts to the trend emerging in the most recent period. 

(Edited by Rohan Manoj)


Also read: India’s Covid death toll 6-7 times higher than officially reported, says IIM-Ahmedabad study



Source: The Print

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