According to Karan Taurani of Elara Securities, Hindi gross box office collection (GBOC) is likely to grow 33% QoQ in Q3FY25 to INR 17 billion backed by the in-line performance of movies, Singham Again and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3, and potential grossing of INR 5 billion for Pushpa 2 (Hindi) alone. Theatre occupancy may reach 30% levels in Q3FY25E with 40% occupancy from Pushpa 2 in December. Robust content pipeline and optimistic CY25 augurs well for leading movie exhibitors.
Pushpa 2 set for lifetime GBOC of INR 10 billion worldwide; Hindi GBOC to be at INR 5 billion:
Initial feedback hints that Pushpa 2 is likely to set record-breaking collections, as its popularity is evident through 1) the fan frenzy in the core Hindi heartland, Bihar, during its trailer launch; and 2) advance bookings reaching INR 500 million on Day 1 alone (Bahubali: INR 450 million, Pathan: INR 230 million, and Jawan: INR 170 million). Pushpa 1 grossed an India GBOC of INR 4 billion. With strong franchise recall, Pushpa 2 may surpass records, achieving a lifetime India GBOC of INR 10 billion, with the Hindi GBOC contributing INR 5 billion. This could potentially break the India GBOC records of Bahubali 2 (INR 12 billion) and KGF Chapter 2 (INR 10 billion). Pushpa 2’s Day 1 GBOC is projected at INR 2 billion, with contributions of INR 1 billion from Andhra Pradesh, INR 800 million from Hindi states, and INR 150–200 million from other southern states. The overall first-weekend GBOC is expected to reach INR 5 billion, driving theatre occupancy above 40% in December with higher footfalls.
Q3FY25 India Hindi GBOC may grow 33% QoQ to INR 17 billion; occupancy to be ~30%:
As per Elara Securities, India’s cinema footfalls showed signs of recovery during the Diwali month (November), with occupancy levels at approximately 25–27%. This was an improvement from October, where occupancy fell below 20% due to the bulk of content being scheduled for release in November and December. Spend per head (SPH) has grown by 5% year-on-year (YoY) so far, while the average ticket price (ATP) has remained flat or slightly lower, largely due to the absence of Hollywood films and the impact of promotional offers.
Recent Diwali releases, such as Singham Again and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3, performed well, achieving GBOC figures of INR 2.9 billion and INR 3.1 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, other films, such as Devara Part 2 (INR 370 million), Vicky Aur Vidya Balan ka Vo Video (INR 380 million), Jigra, and The Sabarmati Report (INR 264 million), contributed to the Hindi GBOC. Looking ahead, December is expected to be a blockbuster month with major releases like Pushpa 2, Baby John, and Sitaare Jameen Par.
For Q3FY25E, overall occupancy is projected at 29–30%, with Hindi GBOC expected to grow 33% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to INR 17 billion. The CY25 pipeline also appears promising, featuring Hollywood blockbusters like Captain America: Brave New World, Jurassic World, and Mickey 17, along with domestic hits such as Toxic, Rajasaab, and sequels of Hindi movies.
Healthy pipeline augurs well for movie exhibitors:
With a 33% QoQ growth in Hindi GBOC, PVR Inox (PVRINOX IN) is projected to see its overall GBOC (Hindi + non-Hindi) grow by 29% QoQ in Q3FY25, reaching INR 8 billion, the report suggests. The company has consistently maintained a 33% share in India’s Hindi GBOC during Q1–Q2FY25, a trend expected to continue in Q3. India’s Q3FY25 Hindi GBOC is anticipated to reach INR 17 billion, supported by a robust content pipeline. PVR-INOX, with its 33% share of the Hindi market, is forecast to gross INR 5.6 billion, reflecting a 38% QoQ growth in Hindi GBOC.
For non-Hindi (English + regional) films, GBOC is projected to grow 10–15% QoQ, driven by releases such as Mufasa: The Lion King and Venom: The Last Dance. The regional segment is set to receive a significant boost from films like Pushpa 2, Vettaiyan Amaran, and Devara Part 2. Collectively, PVR-INOX’s total GBOC for Q3FY25E is likely to touch INR 8 billion, marking a 29% QoQ growth.
Robust Q3 with optimistic CY25:
PVR-INOX is set to perform well with a healthy content pipeline and potential all-time-grossing movie Pushpa 2. Improved occupancy may aid in growing ATP and SPH while ad revenue could see respite, given the release schedule of popular content. Further, CY25 builds hope with a slate of Hollywood movies and Hindi sequels with megastar movies. We recommend Buy with a TP of INR 1,950 based on 13.8x one-year forward EV/EBITDA (pre-IND-AS) (Dec-26E).
