The words of India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru precisely characterise the events of today: “It is the habit of every aggressor nation to claim that it is acting on the defensive” On 24 February at 5 am, cynically and without a declaration of war, Russia attacked Ukraine on land, in air and by sea. Hours later, the aggressor accused Ukraine of plotting to attack Russia and claimed to have acted in self-defence in the same way a rapist would accuse the victim of provoking him.
The events of the 24 February were not an ordinary regional crisis. Having committed an act of unprovoked military aggression, Russia challenged the basic principles of international law and order that sovereign borders could not be redrawn by force. Today, there are hundreds of border disputes around the world. If Russia’s actions go unpunished, they risk igniting hostilities around the globe. After all, China’s “historic” territorial claims to India are not too different from Russia’s narrative in Ukraine. Yet India abstains from every United Nations vote to condemn Russian aggression.
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Geopolitics from the past
India’s reluctance to unequivocally condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine has puzzled many of its partners. Russia’s State-controlled media regularly declares India a devoted supporter of Vladimir Putin and his war in Ukraine. The US, Germany, France, the United Kingdom – all have called upon the world’s largest democracy to join the free world in holding Russia accountable for its crimes.
Perhaps guided by geopolitical habits of the 20th century, India continues to see Russia through the context of its relationship with China, falsely believing that Russia, similarly to the USSR, will act as a counter-balancing centre of force in Asia. Yet, Russia is no longer the USSR, but an erratic fading power whose economy is now twice smaller than India’s and sinking under the heavy impact of Western sanctions. Russia has long been driven into Beijing’s orbit by mismanagement and corruption of Russian elites. Putin and his cronies do not perceive India as a strategic partner, but rather as a convenient tool to dispose of excess oil and fill their pockets with quick cash.
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The price of neutrality
In today’s globalised world, a crisis in one part of the world will inevitably affect the other. Ukraine and India enjoy a strong economic bond. Our bilateral trade in 2021 reached $3.46 billion, according to Ukrainian customs. Ukraine supplies around 10 per cent of India’s agricultural imports, safeguarding the country’s food security.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has sparked a global food crisis of unprecedented scale. The Russian blockade of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which together handle 15 per cent of the world’s agricultural commodity exports, halted Ukrainian food shipments to the world, including to India. Moreover, the Russian army deliberately targeted Ukrainian farmers, bombed their machinery and mined arable lands. As a result, we expect to sow 30 per cent less land this year, further decreasing the amount of food available for exports.
The backbone of Russia’s exports to India is oil and arms. Russia’s recent attempts to lure India into buying more Russian oil by offering heavy discounts of up to 35 per cent, free shipments and insurance are nothing more than desperate measures of a sinking ship’s crew to plug large holes in its hull.
Be in no doubt — the ship called “Russia” is going down. The proposed rupee-rouble scheme to settle payments for Russian oil circumventing Western sanctions may attach India to this sinking Titanic and be a drag on its economy, and geopolitical posture for years to come. Having weakened the ties between the Quad powers and India, Russia will not come to India’s side in the event of geopolitical tensions with China.
Also Read: How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undermined strategic choices available to India
Ukraine and India are fellow democracies
Ukraine and India, although separated by geography, are close by spirit, aspirations for peace and love for freedom. There is a great interest in Indian culture in Ukraine among the general public — there are more than 30 cultural associations/groups spread across the country, engaged in promoting Indian art, culture and cuisine.
As Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine on 24 February, the world has once again encountered the evil of colonialism, slavery, and suppression. The very evil that India fought against too. Being neutral does not mean acquiescing to the intolerable; it does not mean coddling the aggressor or disguising aggression.
Mahatma Gandhi warned us: “Freedom is never dear at any price. It is the breath of life. What would a man not pay for living?” Is the 35 per cent discount on Russian oil the price tag India is attaching to freedom today? What kind of a democracy will India be if it remains silent when another democracy is being slaughtered by a cruel autocracy? What will you teach your children in history classes 50 years from now?
Volodymyr Groysman was the Prime Minister of Ukraine between 2016 and 2019. Views are personal.
(Edited by Srinjoy Dey)
Source: The Print
